Commentary and Forecasts for the following commodities:
I had been short some Gold last week as I was on vacation and even through prices hadn't rallied we haven't seen shorts come into this market. With that said I have bought back my Gold shorts at 553.2. With treasury sectary Snow's remarks putting pressure back on the Dollar I will use 358.8 buy stop to get me back long the gold for a rally back to the February high of 390.
With my purchase of my Gold shorts I have also sold my Platinum at 690.5 so as of this report I am totally flat in the metals complex. My next trade in this complex will probably be getting long the gold on the buy stop I wrote about in the Gold column. If Platinum continues to widen over gold I will also look at the Platinum Gold spreads but this time I will sell the Platinum and buy the Gold.
My April puts go off the board next week and will most likely be worthless. I still do not think with the world economies dead we will see prices stay at these levels. I also will not outright sell this market with all the news going on in the world. The only way I will trade this market (except for a day trade) is with options knowing what I will risk. This week I bought June 3200 puts at 215 (2150$ per contract).
This past week we have started to see the South American harvest pressure come into the market. I have gone short the May's at 568 on 3/5. Longer term I am bullish this market and think we will see prices in the 650 area by July. But short term we could see prices get to the 520 to 530 area. With my trade I am only looking for a 10 to 20 cent profit and if or when we get there I will not be greedy and take my profit.
The May coffee has traded into the 5850 area this week. I am still flat and will continue to wait before getting long this market. Longer term I am bullish but feel that we need more time to base out before we see a new rally.
Commentary and Forecasts for the following commodities:
I sold some of my Platinum this week and SOME outright Gold that I bought at 353.8 last week. So if you read this report weekly what this will leave me short Gold and long only a LITTLE of the GOLD/PLATINUM spreads that I have been writing about. I am not in the bullish camp for the metals and feel prices will for the Gold back to the 320 area.
I still like the Platinum over the Gold and like I written about in last weeks report if I saw profit taking come into the market I would liquidate some of my spreads which I have leaving me 50% of my original position. I am not as bullish the metals as some at this time and feel we are at least due for a correction.
We are back to the 2000 highs of 3700 the only thing I have on and done besides a day trade on 2/20 is I'm long the April 3100 puts and at this stage HOPING for a pull back.
I am still flat this market but will the market a good hard look when or if the July beans trade into the 555 area. I am bullish going into the summer months and think we will see prices into the 650 area.
I took profits on my shorts this week at 6125. I am looking for the May to trade down into the 5600 area where I will look to buy to get long. As of right now I am flat.
Commentary and Forecasts for the following commodities:
On 2/12 I took profits on my Gold shorts at 353.8 and as of this writing I am currently flat any out right position in the metal complex. The only position I have on is long Platinum and short Gold spreads. If I see another 15 to 20 dollar profits on these spreads I will also take profits on these spreads. I also am looking at some puts but have not done any trade.
As written about in the Gold paragraph the only trade I have on is long Platinum and short Gold looking for another 15 to 20 dollars to take profits on. If I see these spreads start to weaken early next week I will take profits on 50% of my position.
The stocks the weather and the Middle East have added up to another strong week for energy prices. I have not done any futures trading in this complex and only have on my April 3100 puts.
I bought back my Soybean shorts at 564 exactly where I sold them back at the end of January. I still think we will see some South American harvest pressure but I am not so sure if that pressure is going to start from these levels or rally up to 590 before coming off. I am more bullish then bearish so would like to get long on a dip going into the North American growing season then being short for the South American harvest.
We tried to trade higher this week but found there was no following through buying. I was stopped out of my longs at 6280 and also went short at this level as written about in last week's report. I am looking for prices to return to the 5700 to 5500 area before we see some good buying back in this market. I will use a 6725 buy stop on close for protection.
注：この文章の翻訳に際しては細心の注意を払って行っておりますが、掲載内容に関する正確性・完全性を保証するものではありません。その内容は、掲載以後変更となる場合があります。それらの変更及び間違った記載に起因する損害等についてasumiruは一切責任を負うものではありません。また、このページのすべての内容に関する著作権は、asumiruに帰属しています。データの無断掲載および無断転載は禁止しています。